Monday Model for 7.11.22 based on TQQQ

Welcome back--I am officially rebooting this blog, and cross sharing my posts with Blogger and the Trading View Community.  All of my charts come from data exported via Trading View, although I may also export other data from Fidelity if necessary. 

I chart intra-day patterns on the stock market.  I do this because it is of interest to me.  I like viewing how the patterns evolve, and how they are different across the week.  I initially began charting the leveraged qqq's because that is what I mostly trade.  However, I am looking to expand this exercise to the indices.  I also believe that charting is valuable in that I am in touch with how the markets typically behave throughout the day.  

As a disclaimer, be aware that these are merely historical patterns and cannot be used to predict price action.  You should always follow price.  Instead, the pattern helps guide my information gathering process, and serve as confirmation if I believe the market is going to move in a direction.  There are certainly times when the pattern simply breaks, and in that, there is value as well.  

I chart patterns based on Day of Week, as well as special events based on Holidays, FOMC meetings/minutes, and other important announcements.   

The model for this coming Monday looks at all the Monday's for the past year.  I take a straight average to get a baseline model, then use a moving weighted average going forward so that the model moves with the market.  The nature of these models is that they are lagging.  

The model shows that historically the price action drops on Monday morning to a low around 1015 AM, followed by a push higher to 1130.  Then another descent to the day's low around 1230, followed by an either ascension to the close (sometimes ascension patterns can also be flat price action).  

In addition, I have charted the model against a Model VWAP and 4 standard Deviation Bands.  

The VWAP pattern shows that the price returns to neutral near 2:30 PM.  

Happy trading! 

Post Mortem Analysis:  I calculated a weighted Deviation Percentage for the day today as a way of scoring the model. The model held up pretty well until 12:30,exactly where a major swing point was forecasted to occur. Instead of going up though, it took a dive.

The Deviation score is -11.91%. Typically, a good model should be within +/- 15% end of day, and +/- 10% by the end of the month. If you followed the model and swing points, then it did provide some good opportunities