Monday's Intra-Day Forecast TQQQ NDX 100
Welcome to my first blog post on updating Intra-Day Patterns. I day trade occasionally using multiple methods to time buy and sell periods (MACD, RSI, Support/Resistance, Technical Patterns, and Fractal Geometry). All with varying degrees of success and failure. So at this point, day trading is still somewhat of a hobby that I've been pursuing and learning.
As I've continued to deepen my understanding of stock market trading behavior, I became interested in using my own forecasting expertise as a method to search for historical buy and sell points within the day. Professionally, I am a contact center consultant, specializing in forecasting contact volumes seasonally and by intra-day, as well as efficient scheduling, vacation administration, tracking, and real-time contact center strategies. The primary method by which contact centers will plan staff is around an intra-day model that arrives with the highs and lows of the contact volumes. Typically, a different arrival pattern exists for each day of week. And while it may fluctuate, over time it tends to remain consistent.
Using this as an exemplar, I decided to apply it to stock prices, segmenting the patterns out by day of week. Because stock prices themselves can fluctuate wildly, I decided to pursue indices, and ETF's that trade a combination of stocks to build hopefully more consistent patterns. I'm interested in what other people's experiences are, and their opinions, so feel free to post a comment or ask a question.
The first model I will start with is Monday's model for TQQQ, which is a 3X leveraged fund based off the NDX 100.
Historically, the stock drives up in the morning on Monday, and pushes to a peak around 10:55 AM. Then it drops again with a low point around 12:25 PM. Then returns course going higher. This trend seems to follow whether it is a negative (down day) or a positive (up day).
These patterns are based on a daily moving average of intra-day stock prices, weighting the most recent week more heavily into the historical average. To build this model, I started with week 2/25 and it included Monday data through 3/18. I will continue to update this pattern going forward.
Obviously last Friday we had the Yield Curve Inversion, resulting in a drop in the stock market. On that day, the stocks did not follow Friday's typical pattern. So whether this pattern will remain true following into Monday is uncertain. As I continue building patterns, I will use my forecasting background to filter out special events such as Yield Curve Inversion, or off days that do not follow the pattern. I've also noticed that on days where the pattern is completely off, the pattern will sometimes invert.
Reading the pattern:
It's important to note this is only a guide, and may be used as a way to confirm other market signals. But the pattern is only an average, and as such it can be misleading to think that the high/low points will be significantly higher/lower than other points on the chart. For example, the chart doesn't guarantee that the 10:55 high point will be significantly higher than the 2:18 PM peak, or even that much higher than the low point at 12:25 PM. Additionally, the model is not intended to predict the exact moment of peaks and lows. Only generally where they occur. So using these for information purposes is important, not necessarily as a single strategy.
Obviously, I cannot guarantee any strategy and any trading comes with risk on your part. I'm only providing this for educational purposes and discussion. I'll continue publishing my daily charts in the upcoming week, and will pursue other models tentatively for the SPX, IXIC, VIX, and Nikkei.
Cheers! And happy trading!
As I've continued to deepen my understanding of stock market trading behavior, I became interested in using my own forecasting expertise as a method to search for historical buy and sell points within the day. Professionally, I am a contact center consultant, specializing in forecasting contact volumes seasonally and by intra-day, as well as efficient scheduling, vacation administration, tracking, and real-time contact center strategies. The primary method by which contact centers will plan staff is around an intra-day model that arrives with the highs and lows of the contact volumes. Typically, a different arrival pattern exists for each day of week. And while it may fluctuate, over time it tends to remain consistent.
Using this as an exemplar, I decided to apply it to stock prices, segmenting the patterns out by day of week. Because stock prices themselves can fluctuate wildly, I decided to pursue indices, and ETF's that trade a combination of stocks to build hopefully more consistent patterns. I'm interested in what other people's experiences are, and their opinions, so feel free to post a comment or ask a question.
The first model I will start with is Monday's model for TQQQ, which is a 3X leveraged fund based off the NDX 100.
Historically, the stock drives up in the morning on Monday, and pushes to a peak around 10:55 AM. Then it drops again with a low point around 12:25 PM. Then returns course going higher. This trend seems to follow whether it is a negative (down day) or a positive (up day).
These patterns are based on a daily moving average of intra-day stock prices, weighting the most recent week more heavily into the historical average. To build this model, I started with week 2/25 and it included Monday data through 3/18. I will continue to update this pattern going forward.
Obviously last Friday we had the Yield Curve Inversion, resulting in a drop in the stock market. On that day, the stocks did not follow Friday's typical pattern. So whether this pattern will remain true following into Monday is uncertain. As I continue building patterns, I will use my forecasting background to filter out special events such as Yield Curve Inversion, or off days that do not follow the pattern. I've also noticed that on days where the pattern is completely off, the pattern will sometimes invert.
Reading the pattern:
It's important to note this is only a guide, and may be used as a way to confirm other market signals. But the pattern is only an average, and as such it can be misleading to think that the high/low points will be significantly higher/lower than other points on the chart. For example, the chart doesn't guarantee that the 10:55 high point will be significantly higher than the 2:18 PM peak, or even that much higher than the low point at 12:25 PM. Additionally, the model is not intended to predict the exact moment of peaks and lows. Only generally where they occur. So using these for information purposes is important, not necessarily as a single strategy.
Obviously, I cannot guarantee any strategy and any trading comes with risk on your part. I'm only providing this for educational purposes and discussion. I'll continue publishing my daily charts in the upcoming week, and will pursue other models tentatively for the SPX, IXIC, VIX, and Nikkei.
Cheers! And happy trading!
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